Forbes Take on Lithium Batteries
Nov 15, 2008 – OK. Which alternative energy source is featured in the lead article in the Nov 24, 2008 Forbes special issue on energy? Solar, wind, hydroelectric, nuclear power, or natural gas? Remember that final comfortable answer from your high school multiple choice exams: None of the above. The article is titled “The Saudi Arabia of LITHIUM” and it begins by discussing the Salar de Atacama in the Chilean Andes 700 miles north of Santiago. This salt lake is one of the driest locations on earth and is 8,000 feet [ meters] above sea level and home to 27% of the known reserve of lithium. The lithium is needed for you to keep your laptop running so that you can read about solar and wind power at GreenEnegyForEarth.com. Lithium batteries also power your iPod, Blackberry, Chevy Volt [NYSE: GM] [well a 400-pound lithium-ion battery might power your Volt in 2010 when it is projected to be available], Mercedes [NYSE: DAI] hybrid in 2009, and a Nissan [NYSE: NSANY] hybrid in 2010. Toyota’s Prius [NYSE: TM] uses a nickel-metal hydride as will the 2010 Honda Insight [Nasdaq: HMC].
Now let’s look at the arithmetic. 102,000 tons of lithium carbonate [the lithium salt used in batteries] were produced in 2007. SQM, [NYSE: SQM] the Chilean manufacturer, which produces 1/3 of the world’s lithium carbonate projects that production will rise to 176,000 tons by 2018, enough for 284,000 electric only vehicles, not including hybrid vehicles that might convert from the current nickel-metal hydride batteries. Assuming the worldwide recession begun in 2008 and to be ended in 2009 by Barack Obama has run its course by then, the Freedonia Group forecasts that worldwide hybrid sales will be 4.5 million vehicles as early as 2013. Now you don’t need a Ph.D. in mathematics from MIT to see that at this rate there won’t be enough lithium being produced to satisfy the need of all those 2013 vehicles.
The article quotes various experts on both sides of the equation saying that there will be enough lithium and that there will not be enough economically feasible lithium. Be sure to keep reading GreenEnegyForEarth.com through to 2018 to see how this works out.
SQM stands for Socidad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. that is involved in fertilizers and mining. Forbes points out that SQM reported a profit of US$191 million in the first 6 months of 2008 [up 103%] on sales of US$787 million [up 41%]. They point out that the NYSE-traded shares are up from $11 to $22. Oops, they forgot to mention that the stock traded over $59 in mid-June 2008. Thus, it hasn’t been a straight ride up & the shares were down almost 6% on Friday.





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